BANGKOK - Only a few months after suffering its worst floods in a decade, Thailand is readying for an El Nino-related drought likely to hit rubber and rice output in the major agricultural producer, officials say

At least 28 of 76 provinces, mostly in the north and northeast, have been hit by an unusually long and dry cool season — normally November to January — and are expected to face an extra-hot hot season — normally February to April — when it finally starts.

“The cool season has lasted longer than expected. We’re afraid El Nino might have an effect in the middle of this year,” a Meteorological Department official said.

The cool season’s persistence to the end of February has already hit the US$4 billion-a-year natural rubber industry in the world’s largest exporter as less latex flows from rubber trees during periods of little or no rainfall.

The 2007/08 (November/October) rice harvest is also expected to drop due to drought and farmers are being encouraged to grow less thirsty crops such as soybean and corn, senior Agriculture Ministry drought official Soopachai Barnpubtong said.

“We cannot say how much production will drop. We are just encouraging farmers to grow other commodities which require less water to avoid losses,” Soopachai said.

The government has allocated 232 million baht (US$6.9 million) to helping guarantee water for farming and industry and plans to start artificial rainmaking operations, such as cloud seeding, earlier than usual due to the drought.

“Rainmaking will start one month earlier than expected in the northeast as it is the most risky spot,” said Song Klinpratum, head of northern operations for the Bureau of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation.

The bureau is priming its eight bases across the country for action to try to boost reservoir levels in the event of a worst-case scenario drought.

“Now, we have around 80 percent of groundwater kept in several key reservoirs across the country, but we still need to prepare in case the situation gets worse,” Song said.

The El Nino weather pattern is an abnormal warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean which causes wild swings in regional weather systems.

Typically, a severe El Nino has caused withering drought in Australia and Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines, and massive storms and flooding in regions of Ecuador, Peru and Chile that usually get very dry weather.

However, US El Nino experts said in October the phenomenon would not be as severe as the one that struck in 1997/98, killing hundreds of people and devastating economies around the Asia-Pacific rim. (US$1=33.63 Baht)

Story by Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat

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