Rumors: the weapons of mass destabilization

Cabinet ministers are resigning en masse. The military is preparing for a coup. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra wants a bloodbath.

Conspiracy theories of all shapes and sizes are floating around among the political and intellectual classes these days. And while the country will find out soon enough what is true and what is false, the constant flow of rumors acts as a means to destabilize the caretaker government.

“This is a war of rumors,” said a long-time government adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity. “People are trying to create an atmosphere of uncertainty so they can find a reason to march. They are trying to wish Thaksin out, or embarrass him out… but it’s beyond the point of embarrassment. There is no rationality left.”

Thaksin’s opponents are keenly aware that once the process for a new election gets underway, the prime minister will be on solid ground. His ruling Thai Rak Thai party has handily won the past three national elections and looks set to carry at least 15 million votes in the next election.

The next month will prove crucial in that regard. On August 15, Thaksin will present the revised election decree to His Majesty the King. If the King endorses the decree, as many expect, then the election will go forward on October 15 as planned.

To survive the next month, Thaksin must fend off a number of challenges. First and foremost, he must work to keep his current caretaker Cabinet intact.

The latest rumors making the rounds are that somewhere between five and seven Cabinet members planned to resign after discussing the political situation on Sunday. Chief among them were Suranand Vejjajiva, Somkid Jatusripitak and Surakiart Sathirathai – though he subsequently denied attending.

After the reports surfaced yesterday, Thaksin called an unscheduled afternoon meeting with most of his Cabinet to discuss the political crisis. The 12 ministers who attended, which included Suranand and Somkid, all said they would not resign and pledged to work hard before the next election, said Veera Musikapong, a Thai Rak Thai party executive.

Any Cabinet resignations would affect the caretaker government politically more than legally.

The resignations of both Somkid, who has journeyed to Geneva and the US in the past month, and Surakiart, whose candidacy for UN secretary-general has been much publicized, would cause a stir abroad and a hailstorm of renewed calls for Thaksin to step aside at home.

Another event that would raise the ire of the media is a guilty verdict next week in the Criminal Court case against the election commissioners, which accuses the embattled trio – Wasana Permlarp, Prinya Nakchudtree and Virachai Naewboonnien – of malfeasance in executing the nullified April 2 election.

The three could appeal the verdict and keep their jobs in the meantime, but a guilty verdict would serve as fodder to those who have called on the commissioners to resign. The final word would be given by the Supreme Court – the same judges who stepped outside of their jurisdiction in May to tell the EC to step aside.

A guilty verdict would push the election date back to 2007. If the commissioners survive and the King endorses the amended election decree – but then the Constitutional Court decides sometime in September to dissolve both Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats – the October election could proceed with just Chat Thai, Mahachon and minor parties contesting.

That seems unlikely, but the number of scenarios that could unfold at this point are staggering. One thing that seems evident through the events of the past few weeks is that People’s Alliance for Democracy leader Sondhi Limthongkul has become more brazen in his efforts to see Thaksin “Get out!”

In last week’s installment of his Thailand This Week talk show, he claimed that “Thaksin does not care whether the situation turns bloody or not.”

He also prominently displayed The King Never Smiles, a book written by a former Bangkok-based journalist that counters popular perceptions of HM the King as being above politics, on the Manager web site, which receives more than one million hits a day.

The story has largely been ignored by many media outlets who fear lèse-majesté lawsuits, but Thai Rak Thai members saw Sondhi’s move as a clear attempt to incite the public. While Sondhi has alleged that Thaksin wants a bloody crackdown of protestors, government sources counter that violence would only allow the military an excuse to move in and oust Thaksin’s caretaker government.

As the next month marches on, political observers will be hoping for a peaceful resolution. That may be the best outcome at this point, given that the lines between fact and fiction – and right and wrong – have grown increasingly blurry.

“A lot of people are saying it looks like bloodshed,” said Prudhisan Jumbala, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.

“The actors seem intent on pushing ahead even if they don’t know if they’ll win, but the biggest risk is to the country itself. And after it’s all over, we won’t be any better off than we are now.”

Source: ThaiDay - 19 July 2006

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