Thai courts and election officials are to begin planning new elections this week, but analysts warn an end to months of turmoil could still be a long time coming.

The process is already off to a bumpy start, less than a week after the Constitutional Court invalidated last month’s snap polls that left the country without a functioning parliament and forced prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to step aside.

The leading opposition parties, which boycotted the last elections, have refused to attend a meeting Monday with the Election Commission and court officials to decide when new polls should be held.

The parties insist they still plan to contest the next election, but have called on the commission to resign since the court tossed out the April 2 vote.

“It would be difficult for this Election Commission to organize the next polls as a free and fair election, because the public has no faith in them,” Democrat party spokesman Ong-art Klampaiboon said.

The court — which only took action after the king publicly castigated the judges — ruled that the campaigning period for the last election was too short, and that the polling booths did not provide enough privacy as voters ticked their ballots.

Hundreds of other cases are still pending, including claims that Thaksin’s party illegally financed campaigns by fringe groups.

The timing of the election carries important consequences, because Thai law requires that candidates belong to their parties for at least 90 days before the vote.

If the election is delayed until late this year, that could encourage a defection from Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party, said political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak from Chulalongkorn University.

“I don’t think any factions will flock to TRT,” he said. “I think the factions could leave TRT.”

“The longer it is until the election day, the better it is for the opposition,” he added.

Few expect the elections could happen within the next month, because Thailand is busy preparing for the 60th anniversary of revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s accession to the throne in June.

“The celebrations place restrictions on timing, so they shouldn’t rush it,” said Mike Nelson, a visiting scholar at Chulalongkorn.

“They should proceed in an orderly way. This is a very important celebration, but as soon as they’re over one can have the elections.”

He expected the polls could take place no sooner than late July.

The other burning question is whether Thaksin, who tearfully stepped aside on April 4, will decide to run again for prime minister.

So far, Thaksin has been deliberately vague, calling himself “jobless” one day, and resuming his official duties to preside over an important royal ceremony on another.

The billionaire businessman remains his party’s leader and its most important financier.

His charisma still holds significant appeal in much of Thailand, especially in the rural northern heartland where his economic policies have slashed rural poverty.

But the urban protesters who helped drive him from office remain watchful, and have already threatened to return to the streets if he returns, saying that would simply bring back the corruption they accuse Thaksin of.

Completely unaddressed so far is how a new government would oversee constitutional reforms that all the major parties have clamored for — a process expected to take about a year and that could result in yet another election.

PCT Thailand

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